A few weeks ago a rumor came out that Memphis was looking to clear salary in any way possible to get under the dread tax line. Since, Memphis is considered a small market their ownership group decided that paying the luxury tax this year and potentially becoming a repeat tax payer was something they were not willing to do (for a short explanation of the tax check out our Rudy Gay Piece). After this information leaked the rumor mill started to swirl, Rudy Gay was mentioned as being the most likely to move followed by the rumor that they were gauging Zach Randolph's interest around the league.
In the end, nothing so drastic as this happened. The Grizzlies decided to send out some of their back end rotation players, to get under the luxury tax. Doing this without sending away any of their stars has to be considered a major win for Memphis. Ken Berger of CBS broke the deal via a series of tweets:
So full deal is Speights, Selby, Ellington and pick to Cleveland for Jon Leuer. Welcome to luxury taxonomics.
In this deal Cleveland is showing the benefits of being under the cap in the current NBA landscape. In the NBA trades have to match salary wise, meaning the value of the two side's contracts exchanged must be within 125% + $100,000 of each other. The exception to this is if one team is under the salary cap, in which case they can take on more salary than the other team. Cleveland essentially traded it's cap space for three players that will be in their rotation immediately as a well as a draft pick.
As Ken Berger mentioned in one of his tweets this deal is the type fans will become familiar with after the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, and its new punitive tax. In the new NBA, cap space has become even more valuable with teams looking to shed payroll to get under the tax.
This move was a win for Memphis because they were able to get under the tax without giving up one of their core starters. Any deal in which they gave up Rudy Gay or Zach Randolph to get under the tax would only bring back 75 cents on the dollar for these two stars. In avoiding moving one of these pieces Memphis was able to get under the tax while keeping its title hopes alive. The deal is a win for Cleveland because they have added three promising young players, and a draft pick for a player that wasn't in their rotation. Ellington is a very good shooter who can space the floor, Selby is a young scoring guard who can help the Cavs lackluster offense, and Speights is an offensive minded big man who can score in the post. Cleveland has found itself struggling on the offensive end many a night this year, these three players will help alleviate this problem In the new cost conscious NBA it was a win for both teams.
Aaaannd we're back! After some time off due to a new job (check me out on Bleacher Report), your favorite weekly division round up (excluding my Northwest round up) has returned. At this point in the season Indiana and Chicago have separated themselves from the pack. Expect this gap between the Central's rich and poor (talent wise) to grow with the return of injured stars. Milwaukee is around the .500 team we have seen all season and will continue to see. While, Detroit might surprise some people and Cleveland is just bad.
When I was growing up I had a basketball hoop on the street in front of my house. From when I took it out of the box, to when it broke in a storm I would shoot on it every day. Mind you, this was not the nicest hoop, it wasn't exactly ten feet, the back board was dead and the rim slanted to the right, but I loved it. The hoop's deficiencies became a strength when I was shooting on it, for no one knew my hoop like I did. Those irregularities made it unique, and what made it unique made me difficult to beat on it.
How does this relate to the Pacers you ask? Well, with the way they play at home, their court can't be regulation. The Pacers are currently making use of their own proverbial dead backboard, on their way to a 15-3 home record. Since I last covered them, they are 6-0 at home and 1-4 on the road.
The Pacers score nearly six points a game more at home than on the road while giving up over 3 more points a game away from Indiana. That's around a nine point a game difference. To put that in perspective, the Pacers are a plus 8.6 at home, meaning if they played all of their games at home they would be the third best team in the league (behind OKC and LAC). Conversely they are a negative 2.6 on the road, which would leave them slightly worse than Detroit and Toronto.
Indiana's problem all season long has been scoring. Two weeks ago they fooled me into believing this problem was on its way to being fixed. Now looking back I see that their improved scoring was a byproduct of a five game home stretch. If they are to make any noise this season the Pacers need to play better on the road. If they are to play better on the road they need to score more.
Good thing the cavalry is close to arriving, in the form of Danny Granger. According to his coach he is scheduled to return in February:
"Dakich: Do you anticipate him (Granger) back and if so, when?
Vogel: Yeah, we absolutely anticipate him back. He's doing well. His knee is healing and right now they're at the point where they are just trying to increase activity on a daily and weekly basis to make sure it can hold up to the where and tear of the NBA season. And everything has held up pretty strongly so far. I'm not sure what the exact time table is but probably some time early in February."
In his absence Paul George has emerged as a number one option. Taking over the role as, not just the best offensive player on the team, but the best defensive player as well. When Granger returns, the league should watch out. At that time Indiana will have a balanced scoring attack to compliment the stingiest defense in the Association. Until he gets back however, the Pacers will do as they have the entire season, lose on the road and win at home. It is for this reason I expect them to go 1-2 this week.
When the Bulls are most successful their games are more wrestling matches than basketball contests. This season, the Bulls have taken on the personalities of Hawk and Animal, because they are Road Warriors. (see video at the end if you don’t get the reference).
The Bulls are the anti-Pacers, playing much better on the road (11-5) than they are at home (11-10). This disparity is very rare in the NBA but it is not just a statistical anomaly. While traveling on the road a basketball team can become a closed environment. Instead of going home after practice to be with your family, you only have your teammates and they become your family. Without the distractions from home the Bulls players ban together and increase their ball movement, leading to a 4.6 point per game increase in scoring on the road.
Chicago is very similar to Indiana, in that they are trying to do the best they can without their number one scorer. Just like the Pacers, they can see the light at the end of the tunnel. Rose has begun to practice in a limited capacity. When he ramps this up to full contact practice his return will shortly follow. Tom Thibedeaux recently gave some standard coach-speak answers to the Chicago Tribune regarding Rose (responding to a question about how they monitor Rose’s progress)
""We'll do it in pre-practice and post-practice," Thibodeau said. "There are parts of practice where there is contact but it's not extended right now. You're practicing less time. But he's doing fine. "We have a great medical staff. We trust the doctors to map the plan out. He has done a great job following the plan. We're up to date every day. That's normal though. It's not only with him but all the players." (http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013-01-15/sports/ct-spt-0116-bits-bulls-chicago--20130116_1_tom-thibodeau-derrick-rose-medical-staff)
Not much can be gleaned from these quotes, but the fact that Rose is being discussed at all, means, that he will return sooner rather than later. For the Pacers, the return of Danny Granger will make them a better team. The Bulls are much more reliant on Rose, because he isthe team. With the way this team has played so far this year, there is no doubt that when Rose comes back the Bulls can re-assume their rightful spot in the upper echelon of the NBA.
This weak I expect the Bulls to lose to a hot Boston team (barring Avery Bradley not playing) then beat Memphis and the Lakers on the road. This year the Bulls have shown that they can beat anyone when they bring defensive intensity for the entire game. When they don’t exhibit this trademark they lose to bad team like Phoenix. I expect their defensive intensity to be lacking against a cellar dwelling Detroit squad, who will upset them.
The Bucks just completed stretch of truly mediocre basketball. During this stretch they have looked good while beating Miami, and Chicago. They have also looked bad losing to Cleveland Detroit twice and the, until recently, hapless Lakers.
While gritting through this average stretch the Bucks and Scott Skilesparted ways. In a recent article Gary Washburn sheds light on the situation:
“The reality in Milwaukee is that coach Scott Skiles wanted out months ago, putting his house up for sale in the area and banking that he could get the Orlando job. It didn’t happen, and Skiles had no interest in a contract extension with a roster that is a strange combination of aging veterans, solid but not spectacular youngsters, and the backcourt of Monta Ellisand Brandon Jennings, who can score but can’t defend. Skiles never liked this roster and had lost his zest to coach, so his exit was good for both sides. Skiles wants to coach again, but he has burned bridges in so many locations that it’s hard to imagine him finding a job anytime soon.” (http://bostonglobe.com/sports/2013/01/13/sam-mitchell-tutelage-helped-make-kevin-garnett-intense-player/5qSK7QcaCPrIU7QXv1qNTL/story.html)
Wait, so the record holder for assists in a game didn’t want to coach a back court that doesn’t pass and can’t defender? I for one am shocked!
Apparently Skiles realized before the season what everyone but the Milwaukee front office figured out immediately, that the Bucks are a flawed team. With their recent drop towards .500 hopefully management realizes as well. If this team is to make some noise this season they need to ship either Jennings or Ellis out of town, preferably for someone who can pass the ball.
Expect the Bucks to go 0-2 this week against a team without a bench and another team whose best player hasn’t played all season. These are your 2012-2013 Milwaukee Bucks!
Detroit is in the midst of their best basketball of the season. Since I last penned this piece, the Pistons have beat playoff teams in Miami, Atlanta and Milwaukee (twice). After a horrid start to the season in which they went 0-8 to open the gates, the Pistons have only been three games under .500. While their record is not indicative of a team competing for a playoff spot, their recent six game win streak, is.
The Pistons will be in the playoff hunt when the season is in its closing days. On face value, that is an outrageous statement, but when looking at the other teams competing for the 8th spot, it makes sense. Right now Detroit basketball is in the 11th spot but only 2 games out of the 9thspot.
Of the teams ahead of them competing for the 8th spot, they are the best team. Milwaukee will fall apart due to a lack of ball movement or talent gutting trade. Orlando is not very good, residing in the 10thspot mostly because of their good start. Philadelphia will be the biggest threat but in the end it will end up being a lost season after building their team around someone who is out most of the year. If it comes down to it, I think Detroit would beat all these teams head to head.
With a team so young they will only get better with experience as the season runs its course. By the end of the year they will be the best team among those competing for the last playoff spot, the question is will their early season struggles be too much for them to overcome.
This week the Pistons will lose to Boston, against a Celtics team with revenge on its mind following a loss earlier in the season. The Pistons will finish up the week beating a below average Orlando team and knocking off a Chicago team that won’t have their switch in the on position against Detroit.
Not sure what insight I can give about the Cavs, other to say they are bad and a few years away from turning things around. The most logical direction I could go in would be to explain the things that make them so bad.
Cleveland is a team bereft of veteran presence. When Anderson Varejao went down so did any chance of sustained success this year. Young players are prone to mistakes, the more young players you have, the more likely a mistake is on any given possession.
To be fair, their poor play should not shock anyone. We knew coming into the season that they were too young to compete. What has been surprising is the way they have been bad. If I told you that a basketball team has a star point guard any rational basketball fan would expect an up tempo fast break team. This is exactly what I thought before looking at the statistics.
It is shocking to find out that once Kyrie Irving came back this team has been far more successful in low scoring defensive games. An optimist would say that this shows the Cavs have great defensive potential. While a realist would admit that they can’t make heads or tails of this team other than to say they are awful. Since they are awful I expect them to go 0-3 this week.
Outro
Thanks again for reading. You can expect the next edition of this column on Thursday. Check out Bleacher Report, using the link above or just search my name under BR. You can also expect my weekly Northwest Wrap up on Saturday and our Podcast should be up Sunday (If not I’m going to murder Brian and destroy the podcast to protect my innocence). I promise that the round ups will be shorter next week. Now for your viewing pleasure the Road Warriors!
Despite it being very early in the season the haves have already separated themselves from the have-nots. Indiana, Chicago and Milwaukee look like playoff teams while Detroit and Cleveland fans can look forward to another rebuilding year. In this week's edition I will go over who has overachieved and who has underachieved for each Central division team. These titles will be bestowed upon players in conjunction with their team's strengths and weaknesses.
The Indiana Pacers http://www.nba.com/pacers/ This Week's Games: 3-0 1. Win vs Utah 104-84 2. Win vs Cleveland 99-89 3. Win @ New Orleans 81-75
Next Week's Games: Projected Outcome 2-1 1. vs Phoenix Friday at 7:00 2. @ Atlanta Saturday 7:00 3. vs Memphis Monday 3:00
Indiana is finally playing the basketball that all of us expected. After seeing them take Miami to six games in the conference semi finals we had high hopes. They are still playing elite defense, but lately their offense has began to pick up (scoring 99 points in two of their last three games). In those games the Pacers were lead in scoring by Hibbert and Green, this was not a coincidence. In order for the Pacers to be effective on the offensive end they need a hot shooting night from one of their players. Without Danny Granger they are not the type of team with a go to scorer. In the end this will make them harder to defend, but in the early portion of the season it has left them disjointed.
Next week Indiana plays two of their three games against big, defensively stout teams. Their games against Atlanta and Memphis should be nothing more than glorified wrestling matches. The question as always with the Pacers is can they find enough offense to win those games. With their offense not being something to be counted upon at this point, I expect them to split those games. Phoenix should be an easy win, they rely mostly on the fast break, something Indiana will negate with their slow down style.
Overachiever: David West Key Statistics: 17.4 PPG, 109 Offensive Rating, 24.6 Usage Rate, 3.4 Win Shares
David West has returned to form a full year removed from knee surgery. His numbers are actually in line with his career numbers playing in New Orleans. The difference is a lot of West's scoring in those days was directly related to playing with Chris Paul. With Danny Granger going down West has increased his usage rate (essentially the percentage of offensive plays a player is involved in) in an effort to take over the scoring load. The most telling statistic is his win shares, (a rough calculation of how many wins a player is directly responsible for) at 3.4 are good for 19th in the NBA.
Underachiever: Roy Hibbert Key Statistics: 92 Offensive Rating, 14.9 PER , .432 True Shooting Percentage, 9.9 PPG
Hibbert has been abysmal offensively, having his worst season since his rookie year. Even in his rookie year his statistics were better across the board except for points per game. The common thinking is that he is suffering greatly from the loss of Granger, having to take more shots. However, his usage rate is about the same as it always has been, meaning he is taking as much of the offensive load as he did with Granger healthy. Although his defensive numbers are career bests if he does not improve offensively Indiana will struggle to win the Central.
The Chicago Bulls http://www.nba.com/bulls/ This Week's Games: 1-2 1.Win @ New York 110-106 2. Loss @ Atlanta 92-75 3. Loss vs Houston 120-97 Next Week's Games: Projected outcome 2-0 1. vs Washington on Saturday at 8:00 2. vs Charlotte on Monday at 3:00
Chicago followed one of it's best wins of the year, a tough gritty effort against New York, with no shows against Atlanta and Houston. Without Derrick Rose, Chicago is a team that must control the pace by slowing it down. With this style of play they have little room for error, this was clearly evident when they got demolished by Houston on Christmas day. Luckily for them they play two games against the league's cellar dwellers next week. I expect them to right the ship and stay in contention for the Central title while Rose is out.
Noah has always been a defensive force. However, this is the first year he is being talked about as a defensive player of the year candidate. This year's defensive numbers are well in line with his career averages and aren't even his best. For example the points he's given up per 100 possession is the worst it's been in three years. The NBA is an offensive league however, and all things being equal the defensive awards usually go to the better offensive player. This year Noah has increased his averages in points and assists picking up the slack for the Bulls with Rose out.
Underachiever: Taj Gibson Key Statistics: 6.2 PPG, 4.4 Rebounds, .448 Effective Field Goal %, 104 offensive rating (all career lows)
Surprise, Surprise another big man gets paid in the off season then proceeds to have the worst year of his career. It seems to be an epidemic in the NBA, and you will find several of these players on my underachiever list. Gibson is having his worst year as the professional, with career lows in eFG%, Rebounds, PPG, and Offensive rating. Considering that they are missing their leading scorer and best player you would expect his numbers to increase, but this has not been the case.
The Milwaukee Bucks: http://www.nba.com/bucks/ This Weeks Games: 2-2 1. Loss @ Memphis 90-80 2. Win @ Boston 99-94 (in OT) 3. Loss vs Cleveland 94-82 4. Win vs Brooklyn 108-93
Next Week's Games: Projected Outcome 1-1 1. vs Miami on Saturday at 8:30 2. @ Detroit on Sunday at 7:30
The Bucks continue to be a team that lack consistency. With their shoot first shoot second back court they can catch fire and beat any team in the league. That very same back court can shoot them out of a game as well. This week they beat solid teams in Brooklyn and Boston but lost to bottom feeder Cleveland. Their defense has been their only consistent trait, with Larry Sanders looking more and more like the future of this team. With two chuckers in the back court I fear that they will not be able to gain some consistency this season. Next week I expect them to lose to Miami and beat Detroit, but with this team they could just as easily beat Miami and lose to Detroit.
Larry Sanders came into the league as an athletic freak with springs for legs. This year he has finally harnessed that athleticism to be one of the best defenders in the league. He currently leads the league in defensive rating, blocks per game and block percentage, on top of that he has more than doubled his scoring. His defensive efforts have allowed the Bucks to be in every single game no matter how many bad shots Monta Ellis and Brendan Jennings take. Underachiever: Ersan Ilyasova Key Statistics: 8.7 ppg, 5.5 rpg, .474 True Shooting Percentage
The third team in the central division, brings us the third under achieving big man who is fresh off a new contract. Like Taj Gibson and Roy Hibbert, Ersan Ilysova has been much worse than in his contract year. All those statistics listed above are career lows (excluding his rookie year). You could make the argument that his rebounding has decreased due to the emergence of Larry Sanders, but there is nothing to explain Ilyasova's poor shooting percentage. If I had to guess I would say it's a combination of being fed up with his back court and a lack of work put in, in the off season (compared with the work he put in on his contract year).
1. Loss @ Toronto 97-91 2. Win vs Washington 100-68 3. Win @ Washington 96-87
4. Loss @ Atlanta 126-119 (2OT)
Next Week's Games: Projected Outcome 1-2 1. vs Miami on Friday at 7:30 2. vs Milwaukee on Sunday at 7:30 3. vs Sacramento on Tuesday at 7:30
Detroit is not ready to be a contender. They are one of the worst teams in the league, with just Cleveland and Washington being the other teams that they can beat with any certainty. This week should be very tough for them, as they play Miami and Milwaukee. Although Milwaukee could decide not to show up that game, in all likelihood they should lose both contests. Sacramento is currently in disarray with the problems of DeMarcus Cousins and the Sacramento coaching staff. With this distraction Detroit should gets its only win of the week.
Overachiever: Andre Drummond Key Statistics: 98 defensive rating, 2.2 Win shares, 113 offensive rating, 20.5 total rebounding precentage, .575 eFG%, 6.2 block% (all first on team 100 minutes minimum)
Andre Drummond was known to be a project by everyone who has ever watched him. Which is why it has been shocking that all the advanced metrics have him as the best player on the Pistons. His team scores better when he's on the court, his team defends better when on the court and his team rebounds better when he's on the court. He shoots a high percentage, block shots and is one of the better pick and roll defenders in the league. The Pistons have found a very good player in Drummond.
Underachiever: Rodney Stuckey 12.1 Ppg, .382 FG%, 14.1 PER (worst of career exluding rookie year)
Stuckey, continues the proud tradition of playing poorly after signing a new contract. However, he has the distinction of being one of the only guards to mail it in after getting paid. At his core Stuckey is a scoring combo guard that poses match up problems because he is too strong for point guards but too quick for two guards. This year he has shot a low percentage and had trouble scoring, making him what amounts to useless, or at least not worthy of $25 MM over 3 years.
The Cav's are on fire! Ok, not really they won two games in a row, but for the Cleveland that counts as fire. After losing at Boston to start the week they finished strong beating an unpredictable Bucks team and a bad Washington team. This week I expect losses against Atlanta and Brooklyn. The Kings being in the dischevled state they are will probably lose to the Cavs.
Key Statistics: 23.3 Total Rebound Percentage, 14.1 Ppg, 14.4 rebounds per game, Usage Rate 18.5 (all career highs)
Varejao has always been known as a very good rebounder, defender and energy player. This year he has went from very good to elite in those phases of the game. Andy excelling at these facets is not shocking, him scoring at 14.1 points a game is. With little else around him he has picked up his game. His bargain basement contract as well as his play will make him a coveted name during the trade deadline
Without a doubt the Cavs are a better team with Kyrie on the floor. Their record reflects the fact that he has missed 11 games and not been 100% for numerous others. Thus far in his career he has been an injury risk, if this continues this team will not go anywhere.
Outro
Thanks again for reading. You can expect the next edition of this column on Thursday. Check out my weekly feature Bracket 68 on Roundball Direct. You can also expect my weekly Northwest Wrap up on Saturday and our Podcast should be up Sunday (If not my computer will have a date with the wall).
