Showing posts with label Kevin Garnett. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kevin Garnett. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Defensive Player Of The Year: The Finalists

Every year the NBA all defensive team is littered with all stars that happen to be good defenders, rather than the best defenders in the league (for example Kobe Bryant two years ago). When the voters aren't overrating defenders based on their offensive prowess, they often elect players who gamble to create turnovers rather than making the good defensive play that consistently help their team (i.e. Rajon Rondo). No matter what your bias of choice, it is easy to be swayed towards overrating a players defense based on reasons that do not help his team's defense. Luckily, for us, the viewing public, advanced statistics have provided us with an unbiased (althoug sometimes flawed) way of evaluating defense. Taking these biases into account, combining advanced statistics and my amateur scouting skills I will attempt to clear the murky waters that is NBA defense, and predict the finalists for Defensive Player of the Year.

Larry Sanders
Important Stats:
3.0 Blocks Per Game (leads league), 98 defensive rating (Fourth in NBA min. 1500 minutes), 8.2 block percentage (leads league min 1500 minutes), .57 Points Per Possession allowed against Isolations (11th in NBA)

Larry Sanders is the the gold standard for the development of project big men. After looking more or less completely lost in his first two years, he has been able to harness his athleticism to game changing levels.

His defense is the best example of the flaw in my favorite statistic, defensive rating. Defensive Rating or points allowed per 100 possessions is flawed because it is heavily dependent on teammates, allowing some average defenders to be the statistical beneficiary of good teammates. Although, Sander does play with some solid front court defenders, his back court teammates either can't or won't stop anyone, there-by hurting his defensive rating.

Not only do Monta Ellis (106 Defensive Rating) and Brandon Jennings (108 defensive rating) play matador defense, but their constant barrage of long two's clanking off the back iron, lead to an increase in run out opportunities for opponents.  When the Black Hole brothers bother to engage defensively they often go for steals, essentially removing themselves from their rotations. In other words his guard teammates make life much harder on Sanders. Larry Sanders' shot blocking prowess is routinely the only thing deterring opposing guards from a dribble drive parade to the rim, and the Bucks would be lost without him.

Sanders' probably won't win the defensive player of the year since it routinely goes to players on the top defensive teams. Despite this he will be in the conversation for years to come with his never ending motor and can do attitude.


Joakim Noah
Important Stats:
98 defensive rating (tied with Sanders),  4 shots have been attempted against him closing out on a pick and roll (0 baskets made), 2.2 Blocks Per Game (6th in NBA), 11.4 Rebounds Per Game (7th in NBA), 4.7 Win Shares (2nd in NBA)

The most important statistic for Joakim Noah (besides hair length) is not an individual one. The Chicago Bulls are third in the league at .85 points per possession allowed make no mistake, Noah is the driving force behind that number. What Noah has done leading a team comprised of many veteran castoffs to the third best defense, is truly remarkable.

What's more impressive is the minutes per game he produces this stellar defensive for. While Noah is tied with Larry Sanders as far as defensive rating, he does so playing 37.7 minutes per game to Sander's 27.

Although Noah is no slouch at 2.2 Blocks per game his contributions are more prevalent in preventing shots from even being attempted. His defensive rotations especially on the pick and roll are among the best in the games history. This is difficult to measure statistically since this is obvious to opposing teams, who simply avoid running the pick and roll against him.

Every basketball player knows that no defensive possession is complete without securing a defensive rebound (unless you force a turnover). Noah's ability to recover to the paint after pressuring the ball handler in the pick and roll, shows agility uncommon among men his size. After recovering ,his proficiency in ending defensive positions by securing the ball should also be considered when discussing defensive MVP.

Like Sanders, Noahs love for the defensive end of the court is infectious, often leading to bouts of awkward dancing/celebrations.



Avery Bradley
Important Stats:
.69 Points Per Possession (12th in NBA), only 23 attempts by opponents guarded while coming off screens, Celtics defense is 1.6 Point Per Possession better with him on the court, 102.1 D rating with Bradley injured 98.1 after he returned.

Maybe Bradley's inclusion on this list has to do with a bias of mine, (I did write a post on him being my favorite Celtic, after all). However, the reason he is my favorite player does coincide with why he is a defensive player of the year candidate, he gives 100% effort all the time, especially on defense.

If a statistic was kept on times a defender guarded his man full court, I suspect Bradley would lead it by a wide margin. With the talent level in the NBA, picking up a ball handler for the entire length of the court is usually a recipe for disaster. In Bradley's case his quickness strength and effort make it a disaster for opposing offenses. His ball pressure forces opponents to start their offense with half the shot clock already gone, making it exceedingly more easy for his teammates to get stops.

His elite defense is not solely a function of his on ball pressure, Bradley is as complete a wing defender as there is in the NBA. If you watch closely, you will realize that his ability to navagate opposing screens  is actually more impressive than his full court pressure. His skill at following his man through reminds one of a running back, in that he turns his shoulders to get through the smallest of spaces to prevent his charge from seperating.

A lot of Boston fans came to the conclusion that Rajon Rondo was the problem when the team went on a winning streak after his injury. Another explanation for their strong play during this stretch was that Avery Bradley was finally healthy, allowing the Celtics to return to the defense that made them elite. After returning Bradley has increased Boston's defense by 4 points per 100 possessions. This happened despite the loss of Rondo, who was an all NBA defensive first teamer the year previous.

Unfortunately, I was not able to find a humorous gif to pair with Bradley. Amusing on court antics just aren't his thing. Avery is a quiet unassuming guy, who turns on opponents with the tenacity of a pit bull, which happens to be the moniker Bradley and Courtney Lee took to when they became Celtics starters. Nope, no amusing dances here, just mean, nasty, tough defense.

Paul George
Important Stats:
5.9 Defensive Win Shares (1st in NBA), 96 Defensive Rating (3rd in NBA min 1500 minutes), 3 points per 100 possessions less are allowed when he is on the court

Usually when a player makes the leap offensively after being considered a very good defender early in his career, everyone assumes his defense makes the leap as well. Whether or not this is true, depends on the case, but regardless scoring more points usually will help a player's defensive reputation by causing more media attention to be brought his way. In this case, George might not be one of the best defensive players, but being the best player on the best defensive team will certainly garner him votes.

That is not to say George's numbers indicate that he is every bit the defender as any names on this list. His number one ranking in defensive win shares, indicates that his defense has created more wins for his team than any others. Although this isn't the greatest metric, being ranked first in any advanced defensive statistic is a feat.

Defensively he is behind only Tim Duncan in rating. However, Tim Duncan being in the twilight of his career (i.e. playing less games and minutes) will preclude him from getting many all defensive votes. Roy Hibbert has the same defensive rating as George, but rarely are two players from the same team finalists for DPoY. All things being equal, the voters will go with the better offensive players, in this case the edge goes to George.

Paul George is a freak of nature. WIth the length of a power forward but the quickness of a shooting guard, he is able to guard multiple positions, often taking the other team's best player and making life difficult for him. His defensive instincts aren't elite but most of the time it doesn't matter due to his unique athletic gifts. The Scary part is, George has only scratched the surface of what he will be as a defender in the NBA. With better positioning on defensive rotations in the future, I'm sure I'll be able to find a better gif than him blocking a helpless, ground bound (i.e. white) JJ Redick.



Chris Paul
Important stats:
2.4 Steals per game (1st in NBA), Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan's defensive rating:101

Fans love steals, pretty much every single year the finalist for the defensive player of the year is tops in the league in steals. Chris Paul leads the league in steals, especially those of the spectacular variety. He makes the type of defensive plays that stand out in the minds of anyone to watch the game, this alone will get him votes.

Besides being probably the best in the game at pilfering the rock. Paul has lead the transition to the Clippers being an excellent defensive team. Without his instruction Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, would probably still be running around on defense like chickens with their heads cut off. Instead, both have taken a leap forward defensively, posting career bests in defensive ratings. Griffin's rise has been all the more impressive when you consider he lacks elite length or width to alter shots and occupy a wide area in the paint.

Despite Cp3's defensive rating numbers being far from elite, he is an elite defender. In his case Lob City's constant track meet pace makes it more difficult to produce elite defensive numbers. Don't make the mistake of looking at his 102 rating and believing him to be a slightly above average defender, he is the engine that makes this team go both on defense and the offense their defense creates. Realize that almost every  run out seen on sports center was created by the strong team defense that Paul has instituted in LA.

Although Paul, is one of the best in the game at picking pockets, and has orchestrated the defensive improvements in a number of young players, he is not perfect. Occasionally he is guilty of a flop, apparently overacting in the Hollywood area is contagious.


Just missing the cut: Lebron James, Tyson Chandler. Roy Hibbert, Tim Duncan, Serge Ibaka, Kevin Garnett, Tony Allen, Marc Gasol. All of these players fall into one of the following categories that excluded them from the finalist list: being too old/injured, not bringing enough to the table offensively to get noticed making the spectacular play at the expense of sound defensive rotations or having an offense so potent that consistent defensive effort isn't needed.

Friday, January 18, 2013

The East Starting Line Up has VH1 Reality Show Written All Over It

The All-Star Starters were announced last night, with no real surprises when looking at the star power. You can see the final voting numbers here.

While the West has a bunch of LA bros and Kevin Durant, who no one seems to hate, the East is a different story. Lebron James, Carmello Anthony, Kevin Garnett, Rajon Rondo, and Dwyane Wade will walk out for the East on February 17th, and there isn't alot of love between these guys.

        
(What I would do to have these five living together.)






Rondo and Wade have been at odds since Wade helped take apart his shoulder, and things got interesting after this year's opener when Wade called Rondo cheap. Garnett and Carmello have been arguing over what their favorite cereal is, and Lebron James who seems to have everyone's love these days is right in the middle.

 If the NBA wants to cash in on this, they should make the five starters on each team stay in a "Real World" like house for the weekend, with the cameras rolling. Here are a few things you can expect to happen in the East House. 
  • Rondo and Wade will play NBA2k against one another, halfway through Wade will break Rondo's controller, but then Rondo will bump the TV and ruin the game for everyone. 
  • When Carmelo comes down for breakfast, Garnett will be eating the last bowl of Honey Nut Cheerios.
  • Garnett will start talking trash to Lebron during an innocent game of beirut. Lebron will go on to make 46 straight shots without changing the expression on his face.
  • When they go out to the bars, Garnett and Carmelo will get into a war of words, and their friends will hold them back even though it was obvious they will never fight. When Carmelo returns home, he will wait for Garnett outside his bedroom, with Rondo lurking weirdly around the situation.
  • By the second day everyone will realize how much Rondo doesn't like other human being when he actively ignores the chore wheel. 
  • Lebron will make sure to shake hands with everyone after everything, whether he came out above or not.
  •  Things will get really awkward when everyone else realizes that not only NBA.com's cameras are following them around, but James Dolan is also taping his own version of the show. 


 
(Do you think they pass it to each other even once?)


Reality show or not, expect things to get a little weird when the East takes the court on the 17th. To prepare yourself, just watch a Kings game.


-Bford






 

Monday, January 7, 2013

They Just Pull me back in...Your Editor's Emotional Reaction to Tonight's Win

They are like the high school girlfriend you can't shake. They aren't as attractive as they used to be, they don't do things as flashy, and they certainly have gotten older. They went into rehab, you lost sight of who they were when they were great, and you are wondering if they will ever get back to what they were. Remember when you and her used to run the town? Yeah, that Summer of 2008 was special. She broke your heart in 2010, yet you came back for more. Sometimes you can't even bear to love them anymore, yet you have to because of all the years you put in. The Celtics are the high school girlfriend who keeps calling and reminding you of the good ol' days. Well guess what. Your phone is ringing Boston. She's calling to let you know she's out of rehab, and she feels fantastic.


(Mark January 24th on your calendar. The Knicks come to Boston.)


One week ago, I had resigned to myself that I was seeing the twilight of my favorite Celtic's career coming to an end(Pierce and his teammates looked a step slow). While it wouldn't have been fulfilling, I would have watched him spend his last few years on okay teams and let him stabilize himself amongst Celtics lore. Boston was resigning itself to saying a third year point guard who really hasn't proven himself over a long period of time would change the culture.(Bradley is great, but he isn't an all-star. Yet.) The team that once was known for it's defense, was getting exposed all over the floor. Those sexy signings? Lee and Terry were the girlfriends even less attractive friends. The future of our franchise was starting to make Demarcus Cousins look like a choir boy. Our future center? Well, he got a concussion by walking into the door.

Now, one week later, after a blowout win over Indiana, a big time comeback in Atlanta, and then a HUGE HUGE win, without their best player, on the road, when they trailed by 10 in the first, I am officially a believer again. This was a playoff atmosphere. This was only New York's 4th loss at home. This got you back to .500. And this was WITHOUT RONDO. 

We try very hard not to be homerish at the pick and pop. And we'll call ourselves out when we are(this is me calling myself out.) But after a blowout win over a younger Indiana team, a 33-9 third quarter against a quicker Hawks team in Atlanta, and then beating the Knicks in MSG, where you forced Carmelo to forget everything that has put him in the MVP conversation(Carmelo was 4-12 from three, 2-10 in the fourth quarter, 6-25 for the game), the Celtics are back. Carmelo tried to beat the Celtics, the Celtics looked the beat the Knicks. They might not be back fully, they might not win a championship, but they are back.

Boston, you might want to answer that phone. The Celtics are ready to take you out to coffee, tell you they are a new person, and that they are ready to give you everything you both wanted. 



-Bford

Monday, December 31, 2012

State of The Celtics: Projections, Trade Talk, The Future

With the current state the Celtics are in, fans are left with an endless amount of questions. Does this team have the pieces to win under contract now? Will Avery Bradley cure what ails us? Is Bradley the only injured player that will greatly help his team? If they need to make a trade who is available and who would we have to give up? Why is this team so much worse than last year despite at least on paper upgrading? I will attempt to answer all these questions and more while taking stock of this team currently as well as projecting the future.

I. The Return of Avery Bradley

Avery Bradley is not known to everyone across the league in the way he should be. He made Ray Allen expendable, and played some of the best on the ball defense in the league last year. In 2011 the best line up the Celtics played with involved Bradley and not Ray Allen.

2011-2012 Bradley line ups
#
Unit
Min
Off
Def
+/-
W
L
Win%
2
 Rondo-Bradley-Pierce-Bass-Garnett
219.0 
1.13 
0.94 
+82  
11  
3  
78.5









2012-2013 most productive lineup
#
Unit
Min
Off
Def
+/-
W
L
Win%
1
 Rondo-Terry-Pierce-Bass-Garnett204.6 1.08 0.99 +38  10  6  
62.5










The lineup stated above was the second most used line and the most productive. The 1.13 points per  possession rating is .5 better than the most productive lineup this year. This lineup also happened to be .5 points per possession better on defense. I know this kind of sounds like meaningless numbers but it is actually very telling. The Celtics are, this year, averaging 93 possessions per game on offense and defense . Currently the number one lineup plays 24% of the teams minutes, meaning Bradley is playing around 22.3 possessions on offense and defense. If you multiply those numbers it is safe to assume Bradley will be good for about a 2.34 more points for the Celtics than their opponents per game. Essentially this means that with the addition of Bradley the first lineup will be over two points a game better. That might not seem like a huge number but it is. Last year in capturing the four seed the Celtics were 2.5 points per game better than their opponents. Bradley might not be the savior but he will help a lot.

II. The Return of Chris Wilcox

Bradley isn't the only player that will help when he returns from injury. Chris Wilcox was very good to end last year before being shut down with a heart ailment. This year before going down with a thumb injury he was playing 6 points per 100 possession better than last year. The Celtics  were a .500 team with Wilcox healthy and were 2-4 without him. More importantly than how Wilcox played is the value above the player he is replacing. Wilcox should take over Jason Collin's minutes when Wilcox comes back. Collins has been statistically the Celtics worst rotation player this year. Every lineup he is in produces a negative output (give up more points than it scores). Below I will post the most prominent Wilcox lineup and the most prominent Collins line up.

2
 Rondo-Terry-Pierce-Bass-Wilcox77.9 1.03 1.01 +6  7  7  
50.0

6
 Rondo-Terry-Pierce-Garnett-Collins43.9 0.89 0.97 -5  2  1  
66.6

The Wilcox lineup is 18 points per 100 possessions better than the Collins line-up. Using the same method I used to project the return of Bradley to one lineup I will figure out Wilcox's impact (in just this line up). Wilcox, adds .8 points per game just from that lineup. So between Bradley and Wilcox coming back we should see an increase of 3.3 points per game just from their addition into the two lineups above. These 3.3 points might not matter when they are getting blown out by Sacramento but as the team becomes healthy, these points will surely translate to wins.

III. Reason for Optimism: Growth

If a positive can be pointed to regarding the games since Christmas it is the improved play of Jared Sullinger and Jeff Green. Now rebounding has always been a problem for the Celtics and despite their poor play recently Green and Sullinger are making steps towards solving it. During the month of December Jared Sullinger has grabbed 1.1 more per game despite play a minute less than in November. Green has pulled down 1.4 more rebounds a game and 2.7 more points since the previous month. 

These might not be ground breaking stats but they are very important ones. It is not just the increased rebounding but the story the increased rebounding tells. Jeff Green has always been an athletic specimen but his lackadaisical style leaves something to be desired. Kevin Garnett calls him Bruce Banner because when a switch goes off he plays strong and becomes a force (Bruce Banner is the alter ego of the Hulk for any non nerds out there). Green increasing his rebounding means that he is playing with the energy it takes for him to eventually become a great player. It must be understood that Green is coming back from open heart surgery so it will take time for him to play at 100%, but small improvements during the season point to a large improvement by season's end

Eventually the Celtics will defend like they did in past years (my guess would be Tuesday when Bradley comes back). When this time comes they will need to make sure they secure the defensive possessions with rebounds.  The recent improvement of Green and Sullinger will go a long way  towards this end.

IV. Trade Talk

This team is currently in tailspin. As fans one of our coping mechanisms is improving our team via fake trades we make up. Celtics fans are no different, myself included. It is abundantly clear to anyone with eyes that the Celtics need an upgrade at Center (a large upgrade at power forward could also do). Their defense becomes porous as soon as Garnett exits the game. The team desperately needs a big to come in and make sure the team doesn't immediately deflate with KG out.

Luckily for fans there are a lot of big men being rumored as available so far. Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap are targets because they are in the last year of their contracts on a team that is struggling mightily. Marcin Gortat is available because Phoenix is a sinking ship that needs exciting prospects to have a chance at being kept afloat in the future. Cleveland is considering moving Anderson Varejao for the same reason as Gortat. DeMarcus Cousins is rumored in trades because he has done nothing but scream at coaches since he started playing basketball. Kevin Love has been unhappy with the direction the Timberwolves have been headed, the question is would Minnesota trade him? Last on the Celtics assumed wish list is Samuel Dalembert who has become useless with the emergence of Larry Sanders.

The question now remains who are you willing to give up for these players? Do they part with Bradley, Sully, Melo, Green or Bass in an effort to win now? Or do they think about moving Garnett or Pierce to go with the youth movement. This can be solved by looking at the make up of the team and it's future.

IV. Make-Up/Future

The Celtics are a young team. They just happen to be a young team with older veterans as two of their top three players. With your superstars probably only having two more years in them does it make sense to acquire veterans to make a run now? Or would it be better to take the nucleus you currently have and develop them?

Boston is a team in transition from the old to the young. Players like Rondo, Bradley, Sullinger, Green, Lee and Bass mark players that could lead the C's into the future. Risking to trade some of them for a win now player to appease KG and Pierce could set the Celtics back long term. If they are to make a deal they need it to be one that makes them better not just this year but for the future. With such a young team the best course of action with regards to the future is to keep the young players they have and allow them to grow.

V. Conclusion

Right now the Celtics need to wait for Bradley and Wilcox to come back in order to see the team fully amassed at full strength. They need to give Green a chance to come back from heart surgery and Sullinger a chance to develop as a 20 year old. While Trading some young players now in order to win and satisfy the fans the Celtics could doom themselves for the future. It is for this reason that I believe the Celtics should stand firm where they are, setting themselves up to make a second half run similar to that of last year. Despite the horrendous basketball I am currently witnessing I still believe in this team and their ability to improve quickly.